Predicted grades are the A Level grades a student’s school expects them to achieve, and they are the grades UK universities look at when deciding whether to make an offer. Because offers arrive months before the final exams, a predicted grade can open or close a door long before results day. This guide explains how predicted grades are set, how universities use them and what students can do to strengthen theirs.
What Are Predicted Grades?
UCAS defines a predicted grade as the grade a school believes a student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances. In practice, it is what the student can realistically reach on a good day if they keep working at their current level or above.
The school gives a predicted grade for every qualification the student is still studying, and these go into the UCAS application alongside the teacher’s reference.
Predicted grades are not the same as target grades:
- A target grade is an internal goal, often based on earlier results, that helps a student aim high.
- A predicted grade is a judgement based on the work the student has actually produced, and it is the one universities see.
Who Sets Predicted Grades and When?
Subject teachers set predicted grades, because they know each student’s work best, and the school reviews them before they are sent to UCAS. Most schools set them towards the end of Year 12 or early in Year 13, in time for applications.
Timing matters most for students with early deadlines. Oxford, Cambridge and most medicine courses close in October, so their predictions need to be ready in the first weeks of Year 13.
UCAS also asks schools to set predictions independently of a student’s university choices. A prediction should not be raised just because a course asks for higher grades.
How Are Predicted Grades Calculated?
There is no single formula. Each school has its own policy, but UCAS expects predictions to be objective, based on evidence and decided with professional judgement. Teachers usually look at:
- Mock exam results, especially the end of Year 12 exams
- Internal assessments and class tests across the year
- The quality of classwork, homework and coursework
- Progress over time, rather than one strong or weak result
- Earlier results, such as IGCSE grades in related subjects
- Attitude to learning, including effort and consistency
A strong mock result helps, but a single good test rarely outweighs a pattern of weaker work.
Predicted Grades and International A Levels
Many British curriculum schools in Dubai teach International A Levels from Pearson Edexcel or Cambridge. The process is the same as for UK A Levels: teachers predict the final grade for each subject, and that prediction goes into the UCAS application.
The difference is when students sit exams. Pearson Edexcel International A Levels are taken in units, so many students sit their AS units at the end of Year 12. Cambridge International A Levels can be taken in stages, with AS exams in Year 12, or all at once at the end of Year 13, depending on the school’s route.
When students sit AS exams in Year 12, those real results sit alongside mock exams as evidence, and universities can see any AS grades already awarded. Either way, a strong set of results at the end of Year 12 is the most convincing evidence a student can give.
How Universities Use Predicted Grades
Universities read predicted grades alongside the personal statement, the reference and earlier results. They use them to decide whether to make an offer and which grades to ask for, and each university weighs them differently.
| Situation | What usually happens |
|---|---|
| Predictions meet or beat the entry requirements | The application is considered in full |
| Predictions fall below the requirements | The application may be turned down, especially for competitive courses |
| An offer is made | The offer is conditional on reaching set grades in the final exams |
| Final results meet the offer | The place is confirmed in August |
| Final results fall short | The university may still accept the student or offer another course, or the student can look for a place in Clearing |
Offers are written either in grades or as a points total. When an offer is in points, our guide to UCAS points shows what each A Level grade is worth.
How Accurate Are Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are often higher than final results. UCAS reports that around half of UK 18 year olds were predicted AAA or above in 2025, while 26% of accepted applicants actually achieved AAA or above.
That gap is why a prediction should be treated as a starting point, not a promise. It is also why students are advised to choose an insurance option with lower entry requirements than their main choice.
How Students Can Strengthen Their Predicted Grades
The surest way to a higher prediction is to give teachers clear evidence over time. Students aiming for demanding courses, such as those in our guide to A Level requirements for medicine, should start in the first term of Year 12.
- Treat Year 12 exams as real exams. End of Year 12 results are often the main evidence behind a prediction.
- Keep work consistent. Homework, class tests and coursework all add to the picture.
- Act on feedback quickly. Teachers notice when advice turns into better work.
- Ask each teacher what the evidence shows. Find out what would move the prediction up and when it will be finalised.
- Share context early. Illness or other difficult circumstances can be explained in the school’s reference.
- Choose courses with your predictions in mind. Balance ambitious choices with realistic ones and an insurance option.
Can Predicted Grades Change?
Predictions can be reviewed while the school is still preparing the application, for example after a new round of assessments, and they can move up or down. Once the application is sent, UCAS expects them to be final, because universities only consider the predicted grades that arrive with the application.
In the end, final results decide the place. A student who meets the conditions of the offer in August secures the place, whatever the original prediction was.
Predicted Grades at Dubai Scholars Sixth Form
Sixth Form at Dubai Scholars teaches International A Levels (AS and A2) through Pearson Edexcel International Advanced Level and Cambridge (CAIE), and guides students towards university and life beyond school.
The school calendar includes a first term assessment window for Year 5 to Year 13, so Year 13 students sit internal assessments before the main January application deadline.
To see Sixth Form life at Dubai Scholars for yourself, book a school tour.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are predicted grades based on?
Mock exams, internal assessments, classwork, progress over time and the teacher’s professional judgement. Each school sets out its own process.
Do universities see mock exam results?
Not usually. Universities see the predicted grades, which teachers base partly on mock results.
Are predicted grades higher than actual grades?
Often. UCAS data shows predictions running ahead of final results, especially at the highest grades.
Can predicted grades be lowered?
Yes. Before the application is sent, a school can revise a prediction up or down if new evidence shows a different picture.
Can you apply to university without predicted grades?
Students who have already finished their A Levels apply with their achieved grades instead. Everyone else needs predictions from a school or tutor who knows their work.
Do IGCSE results affect predicted grades?
They can. Teachers often consider earlier results in related subjects, but A Level work in Year 12 usually carries more weight.
